An Iranian Revolution: Curiosity Killed The Cat

My Facebook profile today reads: “Sandboxer is reflecting, perhaps harshly. The sheer amount of venom, prejudice and self-interest that has been unleashed on both sides by the stupendously imperfect Iranian political conscience, makes me think we deserve everything we get. Much like many Americans suspected after Bush was re-elected in 2004. All parties must be prepared to accept compromises - or risk everything.”

If ever there was any question that the internet and social networking would impact the world in a big way, we can firmly tuck those doubts away. Twitter, Facebook, texting, streaming video, live blogging and emails are directing crowds on the streets of Iran minute by minute and alerting a hungry global audience of Iranians everywhere to their every move.

I declared my support of Iranian presidential Reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi a month before the national elections, first on Facebook, and then via emails sent to my entire mailing list of Iranian pals in the UK and the US informing them of their nearest voting location on June 12, 2009. Incidentally, there were 11 locations in the UK and 40 in the US at last count – in places like Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Tulsa, Oklahoma and Nashville, Tennessee. Drove into London on election day morning and was gratified to see a long line outside the Iranian consulate by 9:30am, a line that had curled around the corner and spilled onto Kensington High Street when I passed by later that day at 5pm.

Like many others, I was stunned by the election results pouring in later that evening. The numbers didn’t add up. The conventional wisdom was that a high turnout of voters would favor the reform candidates, who were excluded from the previous presidential election. But when the final tally was announced, President Ahmadinejad had received twice the number of votes than the three other candidates combined.

So, “the people” – so jubiliant in their certainty that the mass rallies for change in the weeks before the election would sweep away the conservatives – took to the streets. Warily, on the first day. And then with more bravado on day two. Tires were burned, fists were raised in unison. Protestors brandished the green color associated with the Mousavi campaign, and bold chants of “Death to the Dictator” were heard on the Iranian street for the first time since 1978.

And Iranians outside and within waited – waited to see when the first shot would be fired, first blood spilled. And when that inevitably happened, the internet revolution turned nasty. Inboxes were filled with photos, Tweets and videos, highlighting from every angle the same few incidents, feeding the frenzy, and whipping up emotions in every Iranian with a grievance. The onslaught of information and disinformation was relentless. “It’s a Revolution,” they cried. “This is far more than about Mousavi!” they insisted. “The Islamic Regime will be overthrown now,” they chanted.

For a people who have largely remained politically apathetic, it was amazing to see the overnight punditry that emerged. Long diatribes about what the Iranian people want, this from people who haven’t cracked a book on the subject in – well, forever.

Firstly, let me gently point out that the protesters are holding up photos of Mousavi, former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, and at the urging of the Reform candidates, pictures of the late leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Perhaps it is true that many who have joined the throngs have an axe to grind and would like to see the back of an Islamic Republic, but that is most definitely not what is being touted by the demonstrators today, who are taking their every cue from their respective candidates.

Let me also point out with all due respect to my fellow compatriots that there is no opposition to this broad government waiting in the wings. The deposed Shah’s son? No way. Nice guy, but no real legitimate, organized following. The Mujaheddin-e-Khalgh? They are on the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations and have been despised by Iranians living in Iran and outside since they fought alongside Saddam’s invading soldiers and spilled Iranian blood in the Iran-Iraq war. The socialists? The communists? No mandate from the masses whatsoever.

So WHO exactly are Iranian expats braying for? What opposition party, system of government or single leader do they propose will replace this Islamic Republic? This government – and I say this as a secular feminist – right this moment in time represents the only stability Iranians can rely on.

For better or for worse, this government has defended the sovereignty of the nation, the security of its boundaries and Iran’s most vital regional and international considerations as a unified entity – in these issues, the clerics saw Iran first, not their religion. Iranian rabble-rousers with their trigger-happy fingers hammering out the world’s first revolution-by-technology should focus for a second on some truths:

1) There is no credible, organized, widely supported opposition movement that can replace the Islamic Republic at this time.

2) On three of Iran’s borders, at this very moment – Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq - there are cosmic wars being fought between “good and evil,” heaven and hell. Sunni Muslim fundamentalist militants who go by the name al-Qaeda, Taliban, Jundallah, or pick-another-out-of-a-hat, most of which have managed to place a bomb or two in Iranian towns and cities in the past few years, are fighting their local governments and - well - US soldiers. And if these guys hate anybody more than they hate the Americans, it is the Shia. Iran is not only the most highly-populated Shia country in the world, but has been a source of financial, military and humanitarian support for the downtrodden and much-maligned Shia populations in many other nations. Americans and Iranians are fighting this battle side by side, slow inch by slow inch – a fight neither can afford to lose.

You want a revolution today? What – to expose Iran’s very core to the most nefarious kind of intolerance polluting our region in modern times? Destroy the nation’s economy, drive women under chadors again for their own safety?

Like many Iranians who despair at how often the supremely undiplomatic President Ahmadinejad opens his mouth and sticks a big ol’ foot in, I would be disappointed to lose this opportunity to replace him with the marginally more sophisticated Mousavi, particularly now that a new US administration offers hope for a mutually desirable normalization of relations. But I also applaud Ahmadinejad. If a million angry protestors hit the streets of any European or North American capital without a permit, burning tires and vehicles, and flinging stones at authorities, I have no doubt that the riot police would hit the streets in a nanosecond, truncheons raised, dispersing the crowds in such a manner that they would not return the next day, perhaps never again. By refusing to send in the troops with full force, the president has displayed an unexpected vulnerability – one that I cannot imagine will last much longer.

The conservative and reform elements of the Iranian government need to address the issue of election fraud swiftly and definitively. It will be one of those things where nobody will be perfectly happy at the outcome, but this is also one of those instances where compromise must be made…or we all risk losing everything.